My Dad, on Bonds: "He's Over The Hill, Right?"

My dad refutes the theory that Barry Bonds is washed up.

"Well, uh, not exactly.

"Here are stats I just downloaded.

"Despite not being in the Top 30 in batting average (which is what most
pundits look at), if you look at the "Moneyball" stats (i.e., the ones
Billy Beane focuses on) Bonds isn't performing too badly:

"Walks: Bonds' 124 leads the majors by a whopping 33% margin over Helton
at 93.

"On Base Percentage: Here, too, Bonds is in first place at .493, substantially above second place Ortiz at .434.

"Slugging: Bonds is only in fifth place at .588 (A-Rod is first at .637). Aww.

"But in OPS (a combination of the previous two stats): Bonds is first again, beating out A-Rod.

"OK, he doesn't play every day, but when he does he's still probably the biggest offensive force in the game. And, now that baseball is testing, don't you have to say that he's doing it naturally? (Not really, since they don't test for HGH--but still, it's a good argument to counter those who, incredibly, want to keep him out of the Hall of Fame.)"



Good points from Dad. Bonds is easily the Giants most effective offensive player, worth five wins over what a replacement-level left fielder would provide (AKA, ), or six wins over what Jason Ellison or Todd Linden have given their teams this year. Bonds is only 15th in VORP, but has the fewest plate appearances of all but Ryan Braun in the top 40. Clearly, he's still an effective player. Imagine if he could DH somewhere. He'd score 100 runs in 120 games if he played on the Angels.

Other notes: By VORP, Noah Lowry has been a more valuable offensive contributor than Omar Vizquel, Ray Durham, and Kevin Frandsen. Randy Winn is #109, worth almost two wins above replacement. Matt Cain is the second-most-valuable Giant by VORP, worth about 2/3 of Bonds's value. Lowry, Lincecum, and Zito all outrank Winn, and Kevin Correia checks in right behind him. Conclusion? The Giants are really sucky, but the pitchers are much less sucky than the hitters, particularly the super-sucky middle infield.